A moderate number of economic data releases are spread out over the week. The highlights will probably be associated with activity in the housing market, although there will also be a number of reports pertaining to the factory sector. Two of the earliest reads for the factory sector will be released during the week. The New York Fed's Empire State Survey for May is scheduled for Monday, and the Philadelphia Fed's Business Outlook is due on Thursday. Although the two general activity indexes moved in opposite directions last month - New York was stronger, and Philadelphia was lower – both remained consistent with continued moderate expansion. That is expected to continue into May. The numbers for industrial production and capacity utilization in April on Tuesday will feel the impact of slower production in the auto industry and some regional disruptions due to severe weather. Oil prices should help keep mining activity on the rise. Initial claims for the week ended May 14 will include the survey comparison week from April to May. Claims are likely to remain somewhat elevated as flooding in the Mississippi River basin succeeded the tornadoes that struck parts of the South in prior weeks. Two reports on mass layoff activity and state and regional unemployment for April will be released on Friday. Layoffs have been rising somewhat for the private sector as some businesses have cut costs through reducing payrolls. Government layoffs appear to be slowing, but are not yet done. The numbers for state unemployment will add some detail to the national average, but will not change the overall picture.
The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index for April on Thursday should signal another month of increased activity, albeit at a slower pace. Positive contributions are expected from interest rates, building permits, consumer expectations, stock prices and money supply. The Bank of Japan is the only major central bank scheduled to make a routine monetary policy announcement. The Policy Board meets on Thursday and Friday. The Bank may offer additional support for the post-earthquake recovery. The FOMC meeting minutes from April 26-27 will be released on Wednesday. This could well have ...Read more