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Chicago Business Barometerâ„¢- December Adjusted Lower - Stronger Growth In Second Half Of 2019 Offset By Lower Growth In Q1

Date 17/01/2020

The Chicago Business BarometerTM, produced with MNI, was revised down in December to 48.2 from 48.9 previously, following the annual seasonal adjustments.

Growth was revised down in Q1 and Q2, while it was revised up in both Q3 and Q4. The downward revision in the first half of the year was enough to deliver an aggregate 0.1 point drop in the Barometer over 2019.

February saw the largest downward revision, with the Barometer revised down 3.1 points to 61.6 from its initial estimate of 64.7, while July saw the biggest upward correction 2.1 points to 46.5. Activity in the first half of the year was revised down by 0.6 points, led by the February’s downward Barometer revision. In the second half of the year, growth was revised up by 0.4 points, suggesting economic activity was slightly stronger in H2 2019 than previously estimated.

Over the five components that make up the headline Barometer, Production saw the largest upward revision in the second half of the year, revised up by 0.9 points. Employment was revised up by 0.5 points, while Supplier Deliveries and New Orders saw an upward revision by 0.1 points each. Order Backlogs was the only one of the five components to be revised lower in H2 (down by 0.2 points). Inventories, which does not contribute to the Barometer, was revised down by 0.1 points both in H2 2019 and over the entire calendar year.

All series in the Chicago Report are seasonally adjusted by the Census X-12 procedure and the seasonal adjustment factors are recalculated annually every January.